Meet: Yuri Meshkov

A long-time listener of Mark Schauss’ Russian Rulers’ History podcast (now called Russian History Re-told), I would like to give him a shout-out for his podcast last week on Crimea.

While I disagree with his theory behind Russia’s Ukrainian incursion – he believes Putin wanted to gin up instability in order to keep oil prices high and enjoy a post-Sochi bump in government revenue – he did introduce me to Yuri Meshkov, a lesser-known figure in Ukrainian history.

Yuriy_Meshkov

Who is Yuri Meshkov?

Well, before the adoption of Ukraine’s current constitution, and before the much-discussed Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty, Yuri Meshkov was elected as the first and only President of Crimea in post-Soviet history.

Per Wikipedia, his election platform consisted of:
– Facilitating much closer relations with Russia up to the possible annexation of Crimea by Russia.
– Introducing the Russian ruble as the currency of Crimea
– Issuing Russian passports to citizens of Crimea
– Shifting Crimea to the same time zone as Moscow

The only initiative he was able to successfully implement was the shift to the Moscow time zone.

In fact, Meshkov’s Vice President, Yevgeny Saburov, wasn’t even a Ukrainian citizen (he was Russian).

Meshkov has been deported from Ukraine twice, and his background is classic Soviet apparatchik.

The case of Meshkov makes it clear that Russia has had designs on Crimea for a long time, and the latest incursion was not planned over night.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Ukraine’s Got Talent // Украина мае талант

Based on recent events, we need no reminder of the vitality of the Ukrainian people, but a cheap internet meme has been going around under the heading “The Real Reason Putin Invaded Ukraine”, focusing on World’s Greatest Pole Dancer Anastasia Sokolova and her epic performance on Ukraine’s Got Talent

The performance is from 2013, and Putin does have a supposed affinity for rhythmic gymnasts. Check out 2:24 for the money shot.

But this reminds me just how rich Ukraine’s Got Talent is.

One of the more epic performance’s is Maxim Doshi, aka rapper Cruel Addict, who attempted to win the internet by releasing a home-made music video for his single “I Am The Best”

The music video is embedded here, for his two appearances on Ukraine’s Got Talent, click here (2010)б and here (2011)

If you are interested in learning more about the troubled Doshi, I point you to his entry in Lurkomore, the bizarre Russian combination of Urban Dictionary and Dickipedia.

Saving the best for last, though, there is Ksenia Simonova, who rendered heart-wrenching WWII images in sand in 2009, set to traditional Ukrainian music as well as Metallica for the finale.

Not a dry eye in the house starting at 5:20

Posted in Characters, Music | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Is Putin playing chess or checkers?

For the past 20 years, Ukraine has been a country in transition, emerging from the Soviet rubble with an unneeded nuclear arsenal, a linguistically heterogeneous population, a crumbling economy and a semi-authoritarian political system in place, party-boss plutocracy reimagined as “democracy”.

Now the country has been invaded. The parliament of Crimea has voted to accede to Russia. After months of gripping street battles a drama is playing out in the Black Sea coast that apparently has taken much of the world by surprise.

But it was easy to see this coming. Russia has consistently pursued an activist foreign policy in its near abroad, most viscerally seen by its 2008 invasion of Georgia, ostensibly to protect ethnic Russians in South Ossetia.

The argument, the objective, and the implementation are parallel to what we see in Ukraine. They are running their playbook.

And what is their objective? Broadly speaking…

To ensure that key former Soviet states remain politically and economically aligned with Russia.

There are fill-in-the-details, like the naval base deal brokered in 2010, or the seemingly half-hearted attempt at re-integration (following the Soviet disintegration) via the Eurasian customs union.

While the Russian playbook is transparent, the grand strategy of American President Barack Obama, who has been critical of Putin’s incursion into Crimea, has been less clear. Hence the spread of witty political cartoons such as this one:

putin-obama-chess-vs-bingo-checkers

But what moves does he have? Given that…

Ukraine is in transition.

In fact, as taught in American academia, Ukraine is undergoing two transitions:

(1) Institutional transition

The country shifted from a communist regime to a country on the path to democracy (whatever that means)

(2) Geostrategic transition

Due to its geography, Ukraine has been drawn to two competing poles – Russia to the east and the EU to the west, both offering certain protections and certain constraints on Ukraine’s sovereignty.

In fact, as stated in an interview with a member of Ukraine’s Autonomous Workers Union, “objectively, the optimal scenario for the Ukrainian economy would be to continue the old policies of geopolitical “neutrality”, without decisive integration into Western or Eastern structures. Any ‘choice’ will be a severe blow to Ukrainian exports and to the well-being of the people” in order to “avoid an explosion of so many contradictions (class, national, geopolitical, economical, etc.) that intersect each other in the Ukrainian society.”

Based on my reading of world events, these two transitions, perhaps one internal and one external, have created two sharp dichotomies: will Ukraine’s political institutions become more liberal or anti-liberal? And will Ukraine maintain its territorial integrity? (note that this blog post was drafted before the Crimean referendum).

Transitions1

One underlying objective, preferred by realists but not yet articulated by Western leaders in the latest series of events, is stability. Stability in transitions is brought about through any number of instruments, from authoritarianism to the careful management of social expectations, or through gradual economic reform. And the fact is, compared to other former Soviet states, particularly those that experienced armed conflict, Ukraine experienced a stable transition in the first 13 years of its recent independence.

Despite being ruled by a corrupt strongman, Ukraine maintained the geopolitical diffidence described above while paying lip service to democratic reform. The country was stable, until in 2004 all of a sudden it was not. What appeared as the Orange Revolution was in fact just a dramatic reshuffling of the patronage system.

Transitions3

Since this time, Ukraine has been at a crossroads, and this is the first point where we can say maybe the west was playing chess not checkers, as they (naively) engaged in negotiations on an EU association agreement with President Viktor Yanukovich, no friend of the EU and a man who owed his political success to the Kremlin kingmaker.

Let’s say at this stage, based on the two transitions described above that there were four paths before Ukraine:

(1) More liberal (EU-oriented), maintain territorial integrity — path to EU membership for unified Ukraine
(2) More liberal (EU-oriented), compromise territorial integrity — path to EU membership for western Ukraine
(3) Less liberal (Russia-oriented), maintain territorial integrity — path to strategic alignment with Russia
(4) Less liberal (Russia-oriented), compromise territorial integrity — possible path to civil war

These scenarios are depicted below:

Transitions4

In November 2013 Yanukovich made a tactical decision that required a strategic response: he ‘revealed the lie‘ and abandoned negotiations with the EU on a trade and association agreement. The sparked an outbreak of street protests that he was unable to suppress, revealing a society deeply divided. He had deceived his own people, costing him political capital. And had he perhaps also deceived the EU?

transitions6

At this point, Ukraine’s transitional path shifted abruptly as the carefully managed expectations gave way to rapidly growing social instability. I believe this required a strategic response by the EU. Alternately, the absence of a response showed what my intuition tells me is true: of the four scenarios outlined above, none of them fit into any strategic parameters articulated by the west. There are no nukes involved like there were in the 1990s, so we simply dont have any skin in the game. EU membership for Ukraine would be nice, but not worth going to war over.

And here is where Russia implemented its strategy by moving military units into Ukraine, committing the Crimean security services to Russian loyalty and coordinating a dubious parliamentary referendum on accession to Russia. As of this writing, I still believe the military play is largely a bluff (no shots have been fired), but the implications are strategic: Russia is protecting its long-term interests in the Black Sea and understands that its actions have possibly permanently knocked Ukraine off any path towards EU membership, certainly in the foreseeable future.

Why did they do this? Because they believe that the strategic objective is worth the cost. You may disagree with their objective, but I find it hard to disagree with their implementation of strategy. On the other hand, I have trouble seeing what the west’s objective is or even should be. Based on the ad hoc and reactionary response from the west, I think our lie – like Yanukovich’s – was revealed as well: we support Ukrainian integration with the west, so long as it does not cost us anything. We have been on a collision course with Putin’s Russia for years and do not appear to have done any contingency planning. Or we did, behind the scenes, and it has been ineffective.

So is Putin playing chess? If so, what is the west’s countermove? Nation-states come and go, and sometimes stability requires a country to split, either peacefully (Czechslovakia) or as the end point of a long period of bloodshed (Yugoslavia).

Transitions7

If I were a realist, I would make two conclusions:

- While Putin may still be bluffing, he is willing to threaten extreme action to protect Russian military interests in Crimea. [We will see if Putin is bluffing once violence escalates]

- If recent events have “exploded Ukraine’s internal contradictions” beyond repair, then the strategic play for the west is to move Ukraine on the path to the top left corner. That is, redoubling efforts to integrate western Ukraine with Europe.

I think this matches up with what the west has demonstrated it is willing to risk. To move a unified Ukraine back on the path to EU membership in light of the facts on the ground as of March 2014 may require more than we are willing to risk. This means that we either gravely underestimated Putin (possible), or that Ukraine’s future was never a strategic priority (more likely).

transitions8

Years from now, looking back, we may remember November 2013 (and not March 2014) as a moment when the west conceded a crucial stage of a post-Soviet nation’s political and economic transition.

Posted in Economy, History, News / Novosti | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

О вкусах не спорят

This post is not about the 2014 Winter Olympic games themselves. The exorbitant cost of the games and allegations of corruption have been well-documented, as have the moments of sporting triumph, and heartbreak.

Instead this post covers the coverage of the games by Western journalists. I think in our coverage of Sochi we learned as much about ourselves as we did about Russia, and it was at times counterproductive.

There was the twitter phenomenon of journalists posting photos of their unsatisfactory accommodations. No wifi, broken doorhandles, and failing plumbing, all presented as voyeuristic selfies. Leave it to Bill Burr to call BS on all of us (skip to the 5:22 mark for his Olympics rant):

Transcription:

All the journalists complaining that the water isn’t running and all that type of shit…am i the only guy who watched all those cold war movies when i was growing up? You know what it’s like over there…there’s 20 people who have some shit, and everyone else is getting fucked; its unbelievably corrupt.

A little later in the podcast comes a money quote about Russia’s intolerance towards gays:

How can you have the technology to blow up the world, and still not understand humanity?

Likewise, opposition leader and vocal critic of the Sochi Olympics Garry Kasparov also found the coverage of Sochi banalia tiresome:

kasparov

https://twitter.com/Kasparov63

As Kasparov makes clear, there are more salient political issues that have taken a back seat to bathroom selfies: freedom of speech, transparent elections, and freedom of religion and sexuality.

Perhaps incensed by Putin’s smug homophobia, sexual freedom in Russia has become a cause celebre. This is a worthy cause but, as Julia Ioffe recently wrote, advocacy journalism has become counterproductive in the backdrop of Sochi. (“The Only People Harassing the Gays of Sochi are the Foreign Journalists“)

There was a lot of mockery of the opening ceremony, and especially of the police choir singing Daft Punk’s ‘Get Lucky’. It was kitsch.

But Putin loves kitsch. Why was the police choir invited to perform? Because Putin wanted them there! They performed the song at a November 2013 tribute event during which Vladimir Putin was overcome with emotion and actually cried! (video in the link)

The 2013 performance:

О вкусах не спорят.

It is counterproductive to bash the kitsch without understanding where it’s coming from. And, as Bill Burr implies, the ‘scandals’ that did come out of Sochi suggest that many journalists did not understand, and continued to be shocked.

This had two impacts:
– Engaging in Russia-bashing at a moment of heightened national pride actually boosted Putin’s popularity. Pictures on twitter of broken doorknobs will never induce Russians to root against their own Olympic teams (and Olympic Committee organizers). Russia was the first winter Olympics host to top the medals table since Norway in 1994.

- Second, it left all of us susceptible to some epic trolling at the closing ceremony:

rings.si

In Soviet Russia, Olympic Games troll you..

Posted in Observation | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Russian Parenting

Exhibit 1:

Source: Liveleak

Exhibit 2:

animal-children-photography-elena-shumilova-13

Russian Mother Takes Magical Pictures of Her Two Kids With Animals On Her Farm

Source: Bored Panda

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Who won the Space Race?

With the success of Alfonso Cuaron’s latest film, Gravity, which features space debris from a Russian missile as a prominent plot device, I am reminded of the fierce 20th century competition between Russia and the US over the cosmos and want to ask the somewhat rhetorical question: who really won the Space Race?

Well for one, let’s acknowledge that the space race is not over (will it ever be?) and that opinions may change in the coming decades as mankind continues to explore the final frontier and gets closer to putting a human on Mars.

Second, the July 1969 breathtaking broadcast of Neil Armstrong’s first steps on the Moon is understandably considered the triumphal high point of the Cold War-era contest between the USA and the USSR.

It’s also true that the USSR never really stood a chance in the race to put a man on the Moon. Jalopnik just released a fascinating piece explaining in detail why the Soviet Union’s kerosene-fueled N1 rocket was never able to reach the same heights as the Saturn V that launched the crew of the Apollo 11 on their historic mission.

The N1:
ku-bigpic

The N1 had four test launches, all resulting in failure:

But, courtesy of the Jalopnik commenters, let’s not forget some important milestones that the Soviet’s did reach first:

- First satellite in space (Sputnik)
– First animal in space (Laika)
– First man in space (Yuri Gagarin)
– First woman in space (Valentina Tereshkova)
– First probe to land on the Moon (Luna 2 in 1959, it crashed)
– First probe to land on the Moon and survive impact (Luna 9 in 1966)
– First rover on the Moon (Lunokhod 1, 1970)
– First to release a film version of the novel Solaris (the George Clooney version was not released until 2002)

So there’s that.

One additional thing to note is that the Soviet’s were extremely cautious with their own Luna program, fearing that sending a man to the Moon would lead to a hazardous Solar Radiation Event.

This caution is atypical, as one reason the Soviets were the first to achieve the milestones noted above is that they often threw caution to the wind. The thinking with the ill-fated Luna 2 probe, the first to ever ‘land’ on the Moon was that “hey, crashing counts as landing!!”

Posted in History, Observation | Tagged , , , , , , | 4 Comments

No surprises here

Not sure if Evil Jared got what he expected after he “placed a Russian flag in his pants, rubbed it on his ass, and said to the approving crowd, “Don’t tell Putin.” As Gawker reports, the Bloodhound Gang was subsequently banned from the Kurban music festival and briefly detained at the airport.

http://gawker.com/bloodhound-gang-banned-from-russia-for-flag-desecration-1024658685

One Russia-related reference from the Philly-based group comes from their sophomore album, Use Your Fingers:

Clap it on, clap it off
Sniff my exhaust
Because I’ve got more steps than Baryshnikov

Posted in Music | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Time lapse video of Moscow

Posted in Observation | Tagged | Leave a comment

Vice spends a day with Sergei Veremeenko

Vodka, banya, hunting, it’s the lifestyle of the rich (and famous?)

Thanks to RK for the link.

Posted in Characters | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Happy Birthday, Mayakovsky

(2 days late)

СЕБЕ, ЛЮБИМОМУ,
ПОСВЯЩАЕТ ЭТИ СТРОКИ АВТОР

Четыре.
Тяжелые, как удар.
«Кесарево кесарю — богу богово».
А такому,
как я,
ткнуться куда?
Где для меня уготовано логово?

Если б был я
маленький,
как Великий океан, —
на цыпочки б волн встал,
приливом ласкался к луне бы.
Где любимую найти мне,
такую, как и я?
Такая не уместилась бы в крохотное небо!

О, если б я нищ был!
Как миллиардер!
Что деньги душе?
Ненасытный вор в ней.
Моих желаний разнузданной орде
не хватит золота всех Калифорний.

Если б быть мне косноязычным,
как Дант
или Петрарка!
Душу к одной зажечь!
Стихами велеть истлеть ей!
И слова
и любовь моя —
триумфальная арка:
30 пышно,
бесследно пройдут сквозь нее
любовницы всех столетий.

О, если б был я
тихий,
как гром, —
ныл бы,
дрожью объял бы земли одряхлевший скит.
Я
если всей его мощью
выреву голос огромный —
кометы заломят горящие руки,
бросятся вниз с тоски.
Я бы глаз лучами грыз ночи —
о, если б был я
тусклый,
как солнце!
Очень мне надо
сияньем моим поить
земли отощавшее лонце!

Пройду,
любовищу мою волоча.
В какой ночи́,
бредово́й,
недужной,
какими Голиафами я зача́т —
такой большой
и такой ненужный?
[1916]

Posted in Characters, History, Writing | Tagged | Leave a comment